BANGKOK, August 7, 2023 – Economists expected July’s meeting would be the Federal Reserve (Fed)’s last rate hike of the current tightening cycle after headline inflation fell to 3 percent in June. The odd of US recession remains high, albeit in a declining trend, while the insignificant increase in unemployment rate propels risk assets. For China, economic growth of the world’s second largest economy was well below economists’ forecast. China’s export and manufacturing slump compelled the People’s Bank of China to cut policy rate and the government to launch the stimulus measures aiming to boost consumption in automotive, property and service sectors which could bode well to Thai listed companies in the future.
Senior Executive Vice President of The Stock Exchange of Thailand (SET) Soraphol Tulayasathien said that Asian Development Bank (ADB)’s report stated that Asia and the Pacific constantly recover from the COVID-19 pandemic but Southeast Asia region’s economic growth is expected to slow to 4.6 percent this year and 4.9 percent in 2024. However, ADB raised Thailand’s economic outlook to 3.5 percent this year from 3.3 percent projected in April. Furthermore, SET Index’s forward price to earnings (PE) ratio lowered than the average in the past and this encouraged local individual and institutional investors to extend their net buying streak to six consecutive months.
Key highlights for July -At the end of July 2023, the SET Index rose 3.5 percent from the previous month but declined 6.7 percent from the end of 2022 to close at 1,556.06 points.
-At the end of July 2023, industry groups that outperformed SET index when compared with the end of last year comprised Technology and Financials.
-In July 2023, SET’s and Market for Alternative Investment (mai)’s average daily trading value dropped 25.3 percent from the same period a year before to THB 46 billion (approx. USD 1.34 billion). Both markets’ trading value averaged THB 56.87 billion a day for the first seven months of 2023. Foreign investors were net sellers for the sixth straight month in July with a net position of THB 12.56 billion. However, their trading ratio remained higher than any other types of investors for 15 consecutive months. For retail investors, the number of active accounts in the post-COVID increased considerably when compared with the average in the pre-COVID, though trading value fell from the beginning of this year.
-In July, there was a newly SET-listed company: Patrangsit Healthcare Group pcl (PHG).
-The Thai stock exchange’s forward P/E ratio at the end of July 2023 was 17.0 times, above the Asian stock market’s average of 13.3 times. The historical P/E ratio stood at 21.3 times, exceeding the Asian stock market’s average of 14.6 times.
-Dividend yield ratio at the end of July 2023 was 3.12 percent, below the Asian stock market’s average of 3.20 percent.
Derivatives market
-Thailand Futures Exchange (TFEX)’s daily trading volume in July averaged 474,850 contracts, down 22.0 percent from the previous month largely due to the decline in trading volume of SET50 Index Futures and Single Stock Futures. For the January-to-July 2023, TFEX’s average daily trading volume dropped 1.9 percent over the same period last year to 546,687 contracts, mainly due to the lower trading volume of Single Stock Futures.
